President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are in a technical tie for a simulated second-round presidential vote.
The results highlight a deeply polarized electorate as Brazil prepares for the 2026 elections, suggesting that neither the incumbent nor the Bolsonaro camp holds a definitive lead.
According to data from Real Time Big Data collected between July 18 and 20 [4], Lula leads the first-round scenario with 40% of voters [1]. Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 35% [2]. The poll, which surveyed 2,000 respondents [3], suggests a competitive landscape as the campaign progresses.
In a simulated second-round runoff, the gap narrows significantly. Lula holds 47% of the support compared to 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro [3]. Analysts said this result is a technical tie, meaning the difference falls within the poll's margin of error.
While the matchup between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is prominent, other figures are emerging in the data. Some reports indicate that Ronaldo Caiado is also in a technical tie with the president in second-round simulations [5]. Real Time Big Data said that Caiado has emerged as a highly competitive name against Lula [6].
The poll also looked at regional performance, including specific data from the state of Amapá, where the competition between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remains a focal point.
Real Time Big Data said, "Lula empata com Flávio Bolsonaro no segundo turno e lidera o primeiro" [1].
“Lula leads the first-round scenario with 40% of voters.”
The data suggests that while President Lula maintains a lead in a crowded first-round field, the consolidation of the right-wing vote behind a single candidate—whether Flávio Bolsonaro or Ronaldo Caiado—could neutralize that advantage. The technical tie in the runoff indicates that the 2026 election will likely be decided by a small margin of undecided voters or a shift in regional alliances.
