Economist and former diplomat Marcos Troyjo said Brazil should not invoke the reciprocity law to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States [1].
This debate centers on whether Brazil can leverage trade laws to protect its interests or if such a move would trigger a broader economic downturn. Because the U.S. remains a critical trading partner, any shift toward protectionism could disrupt supply chains and increase costs for Brazilian consumers.
Speaking on the program Direto ao Ponto, Troyjo said the idea of using tariffs to retaliate against American government actions is an exercise in futility. He said that doing so "would be like hitting your head against the wall" [1]. He said that such a strategy would be ineffective and would ultimately harm the Brazilian economy rather than forcing a change in U.S. policy.
Tirso Meirelles, the president of FAESP/SENAR-SP, also said the potential for Brazil to apply the reciprocity law [2]. Meirelles said the potential negative impacts that would follow if such a policy were adopted. He said that the consequences of trade retaliation would likely affect domestic sectors, and stakeholders within Brazil [2].
The tension reflects a broader struggle in international trade where developing nations weigh the benefits of diplomatic reciprocity against the risks of trade wars. While some policymakers suggest that reciprocity is a necessary tool for sovereignty, experts like Troyjo said that the asymmetric nature of the U.S.-Brazil trade relationship makes retaliation a losing strategy.
Troyjo's position emphasizes a preference for diplomatic negotiation over trade barriers. He said that the economic cost of higher tariffs on imports would outweigh any political leverage gained from challenging the U.S. government through the reciprocity law [1].
“"Brasil não deve usar tarifas para retaliar as ações do governo americano; isso seria como bater a cabeça na parede."”
The disagreement between the potential for legal reciprocity and the reality of economic interdependence highlights Brazil's precarious position in global trade. If Brazil chooses to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, it risks increasing inflation and reducing the competitiveness of its own industries, suggesting that diplomatic channels are the only viable path to resolving trade disputes without causing internal economic instability.
