Canada's total fertility rate has fallen to a record low, dropping below the level needed to maintain the population without immigration [1].
This decline signals a demographic shift that could impact the long-term sustainability of the national workforce and social services. Because the birth rate is no longer sufficient to replace the existing population, Canada must rely more heavily on immigration to prevent population decline.
Statistics Canada and demographers recorded the record low for the year 2024 [2]. The total fertility rate fell below 1.30 children per woman [3], a threshold categorized as "ultra-low" fertility [3].
Experts said the drop is due to a combination of changing fertility patterns and delayed childbearing. Economic factors and other societal influences have also pushed the rate downward [4]. The trend reflects a broader shift in how Canadians approach family planning and the timing of parenthood.
While immigration has historically buffered the effects of low birth rates, current data suggests it cannot fully compensate for the steep decline in natural population growth [5]. The gap between the number of births and the number of deaths creates a reliance on newcomers to maintain economic stability and a functioning tax base.
Demographers said the shift toward ultra-low fertility is not an isolated event but part of a continuing trend of declining birth rates across the country [1]. This trajectory suggests that the 2024 figures may be a baseline for future demographic challenges as the population ages.
“Canada's total fertility rate has fallen to a record low”
A fertility rate below 2.1 is generally considered below the replacement level. By falling below 1.30, Canada has entered a demographic state where the native-born population will shrink over time. This creates an urgent dependency on immigration to fill labor shortages and support an aging population, potentially shifting the focus of national policy toward aggressive recruitment of foreign workers to avoid economic stagnation.
