Iván Cepeda is losing support in the central region of Colombia as the country moves toward a potential presidential runoff election.
This shift in momentum occurs during a critical window following the first round of voting on May 31, 2026. The volatility in the central region could determine whether the Pacto Histórico candidate maintains his lead or is overtaken by right-leaning opponents.
Recent data from Polymarket indicates a narrow lead for Abelardo De La Espriella, who holds a 43% [1] probability of winning compared to 41% [1] for Cepeda. Other polls have shown varying results; a CNC poll suggested both Cepeda and De La Espriella would advance to the second round [2]. Earlier reports from Marca said that Cepeda led the field, though Paloma Valencia and De La Espriella were closing the gap [3].
Observers said that Cepeda's position in the central region has weakened in the days following the initial vote. This decline coincides with accusations of fraud that have surfaced, although these claims are not supported by independent observers [4].
Paloma Valencia has also seen a surge in support, according to AtlasIntel data [5]. The competition between these three figures has created a fragmented landscape in the central zone, a key battleground for the presidency.
While some sources continue to place Cepeda at the top of the race, others suggest he is losing the momentum necessary to secure a definitive victory. The discrepancy between traditional polling and prediction markets highlights the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome.
“Iván Cepeda is losing support in the central region of Colombia”
The fluctuation in polling and the rise of De La Espriella and Valencia suggest a narrowing path to victory for the Pacto Histórico. If Cepeda cannot stabilize his support in central Colombia and counter the narrative of instability, the race may shift from a predicted Cepeda victory to a highly competitive runoff where the right-wing coalition holds the advantage.
