Researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s National Institute of Strategic Studies warned Beijing that defence contractors could exert excessive influence over national policy [1].
The warning comes as China continues to modernize its military capabilities. The authors said that allowing private-sector interests to dictate security priorities could undermine state control and lead to profit-driven decision-making rather than strategic necessity.
Published on Monday, the study uses the U.S. military-industrial complex as a primary cautionary tale [1]. Specifically, the researchers highlight the "iron triangle"—a mutually reinforcing relationship between the U.S. Department of Defence, private contractors, and congressional committees [1].
According to the study, this U.S. system demonstrates how the profit-driven expansion of military hardware can hijack national security decision-making [1]. The authors said that when contractors gain too much leverage, they can influence the government to pursue policies that increase demand for their products, regardless of whether those policies serve the national interest [1].
The paper suggests that China faces a similar risk if it allows comparable private-sector influence to take root within its own procurement processes [1]. By analyzing the American model, the researchers aim to provide Chinese policymakers with a framework to avoid the perceived pitfalls of a military-industrial complex that prioritizes corporate gain over strategic stability [1].
The study does not propose specific legislative changes but serves as a strategic alert to the central government regarding the long-term risks of contractor integration [1].
“Defence contractors could exert excessive influence over China’s defence policy.”
This study reflects an internal debate within Chinese strategic circles about the balance between utilizing private innovation and maintaining strict Communist Party control over the military. By framing the U.S. system as a cautionary 'iron triangle,' the researchers are signaling that the perceived inefficiency and lobbying power of the U.S. defence sector are viewed as strategic vulnerabilities that Beijing must proactively avoid.
