Iván Cepeda of the Pacto Histórico currently holds the highest voting intention in a recent Invamer poll for Colombia's presidential race [1].
The results signal a potential shift in the electoral landscape just days before the first round of voting on May 31, 2026 [2]. This polling suggests a deepening polarization between the left-wing coalition and the right-wing candidates vying for a spot in the runoff.
According to the Invamer data, Abelardo de la Espriella of Defensores de la Patria has emerged as a strong competitor [1]. Analysis of the figures indicates that De la Espriella could potentially reach the second round of voting, effectively displacing Paloma Valencia of the right-wing coalition from a top position [3].
Supporters of the left-wing movement have reacted positively to the numbers. Mafe Carrascal said, "Haremos historia" [1].
However, the validity of these results has faced scrutiny. While some reports position De la Espriella as the most secure candidate for the right [1], other evaluations have questioned the methodology. A source from the original digital survey, cited by Colombiacheck, said, "Se trata de un ejercicio sin representatividad estadística" [4].
Despite these contradictions, the poll highlights a volatile environment for the right-wing candidates. The displacement of Valencia by De la Espriella suggests a fragmentation of the conservative vote as the May 31 deadline approaches [2].
“Iván Cepeda of the Pacto Histórico currently holds the highest voting intention”
The volatility in the Invamer polling reflects a fragmented right-wing opposition and a consolidated base for the Pacto Histórico. If the trend of De la Espriella displacing Paloma Valencia continues, the right may enter the runoff with a more populist or legalistic profile rather than a traditional conservative one, potentially altering the strategy for the final stage of the 2026 election.
