Recent polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading Paloma Valencia in voter intention for Colombia's 2026 presidential race [1].
This shift in momentum suggests a consolidation of the right-wing vote, which could determine whether a conservative candidate can defeat left-wing challenger Iván Cepeda in a second-round runoff.
Data from AtlasIntel indicates that de la Espriella has doubled the voter intention of Valencia [1]. Other polling, including a Gad3 survey released on April 27, 2026, confirms that de la Espriella has taken a significant advantage over Valencia [3]. According to these analyses, de la Espriella is currently positioned to defeat Iván Cepeda in an eventual second round [1].
Cepeda remains a formidable contender, with one poll placing his voter intention at 37.6% [2]. While some analysts suggest that a joint ticket featuring both Valencia and de la Espriella would defeat Cepeda in both the first and second rounds [4], the candidates themselves appear divided.
De la Espriella has rejected the idea of an alliance with Valencia. "Voy a derrotarla y pasaré a segunda vuelta" (I am going to defeat her and move to the second round), de la Espriella said [5].
This internal competition on the right occurs as analysts observe a relative weakness in Valencia's campaign. While some reports suggest Cepeda is consolidating his lead [6], other data suggests the right-wing electorate is shifting its preference toward de la Espriella as the primary challenger to the left.
“Abelardo de la Espriella has doubled the voter intention of Paloma Valencia.”
The emergence of Abelardo de la Espriella as the frontrunner for the right indicates a fragmentation of the traditional conservative base. While a unified right-wing ticket is mathematically stronger against Iván Cepeda, de la Espriella's refusal to ally with Paloma Valencia suggests a preference for individual dominance over a coalition, potentially splitting the vote before the runoff.
