The probability of an El Niño phenomenon developing in Colombia is increasing, with an intense event expected in the coming months [1].
This atmospheric shift threatens the region with severe drought and extreme temperatures, which can disrupt agricultural production and water security across the country.
The Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are monitoring the situation [1]. Data from May showed temperatures above historical averages [5] and a significant reduction in rainfall across several Colombian zones [5]. These conditions are considered favorable for the development of the phenomenon [5].
Experts said the event could develop during the second semester of 2026 [3]. There are slight variations in the projected onset date, with some reports pointing to July 2026 [4] while others suggest August 2026 [6].
This period of instability is expected to bring one of the strongest heatwaves of the year [1]. The impact will be felt nationwide, though specific regions already experiencing reduced rainfall are at higher risk for prolonged droughts [3], [4].
Government agencies are tracking the shift to prepare for the potential environmental impact. The combination of high temperatures and low precipitation creates a volatile environment for the country's ecosystems, increasing the risk of wildfires and water shortages.
“The probability of an El Niño phenomenon developing in Colombia is increasing.”
The projected onset of a strong El Niño in late 2026 suggests a period of significant climatic stress for Colombia. Because the country relies heavily on hydroelectric power and agriculture, an intense drought period typically leads to energy price hikes and food inflation, necessitating early mitigation strategies from the government.
