The El Niño weather phenomenon could trigger electricity price spikes and power rationing across Colombia throughout 2026 [1].
This situation threatens national stability because more than 70% of the country's electricity generation depends on hydroelectric plants [1]. As the phenomenon causes severe droughts, water levels in reservoirs drop, reducing power output and forcing the use of more expensive energy alternatives.
Climate models have focused on the period between April and June as decisive for determining the magnitude of the event [2]. However, other forecasts indicate a high probability that the phenomenon will reach its peak intensity in August 2026 [5].
The Caribbean region is expected to be particularly vulnerable. This area has already seen thermal sensations exceed 40 °C [1]. Beyond the energy grid, the drought is impacting the agricultural sector, with potential dairy price increases of up to 70% in the Caribbean due to falling livestock production [4].
Financial pressures on consumers are already evident. In March 2026, the average energy price for households and small businesses was 327.04 COP/kWh [3]. Experts from IDEAM and energy-generation guilds said that the combination of high demand and low water availability creates a high risk of rationing if mitigation strategies fail.
To combat these risks, the government and energy sector are monitoring river flow and reservoir levels. The reliance on water-based power makes the national grid sensitive to any shift in precipitation patterns, a vulnerability that becomes acute during El Niño cycles.
“More than 70% of the country's electricity generation depends on hydroelectric plants.”
Colombia's heavy reliance on hydroelectric power creates a systemic vulnerability to climate volatility. When El Niño suppresses rainfall, the country faces a dual crisis of energy insecurity and inflation, as the cost of generating power rises and the agricultural supply chain—particularly dairy in the Caribbean—is disrupted. This cycle highlights the urgent need for diversifying the energy matrix to reduce dependence on water-driven generation.
