Colombia's energy sector warns that the El Niño phenomenon could jeopardize the national electricity supply during the second half of 2026 [3].
Because Colombia relies heavily on hydroelectric power, a significant drop in rainfall can lead to widespread energy shortages. This creates a critical vulnerability for the nation's industrial and residential power grids if water levels are not managed proactively.
The Colombian Association of Generators (Acolgen) and experts from the Center for Energy Studies have raised alarms regarding the stability of the grid. Natalia Gutiérrez, president of Acolgen, said, "Podríamos no tener suficiente energía para atender a colombianos" [2].
To mitigate these risks, officials said that reservoirs must reach at least 80% of their capacity [1] before Dec. 31, 2026 [2]. This target is essential to buffer the system against the expected decrease in precipitation associated with the weather pattern.
The probability that El Niño will manifest in the second half of 2026 exceeds 90% [3]. While some reports describe the event as a "Super El Niño" [2], other sources refer to it as a standard El Niño phenomenon [2]. Despite these differing descriptions, the projected impact on water levels remains a primary concern for the government.
Energy sector spokespeople said the electrical system is currently operating without a significant margin of maneuver. They said that the grid will depend on constant monitoring, thermal generation, and energy-saving measures to maintain stability [1].
Thermal power plants, which use fossil fuels, serve as the primary backup when hydroelectric levels fall. However, relying on these sources often increases costs and carbon emissions, a challenge for the country's environmental goals.
“"Podríamos no tener suficiente energía para atender a colombianos"”
The situation highlights the precarious balance of Colombia's energy matrix, which is overwhelmingly dependent on water. A failure to meet the 80% reservoir target would likely force the government to implement mandatory energy rationing or increase reliance on expensive thermal plants, potentially driving up electricity costs for consumers and businesses.
