Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy said that the early arrival of the El Niño phenomenon will raise electricity prices and risk supply shortages [1].
This warning is critical because Colombia relies heavily on hydroelectric power. Severe droughts reduce the water levels in reservoirs, forcing the country to rely on more expensive energy alternatives or face potential blackouts [3, 5].
Experts said there is a probability of more than 90% [4] that El Niño will develop during the second half of 2026. While some reports estimate the phenomenon will begin in October 2026 [2], others suggest a "Super Niño" may arrive in the final quarter of the year, specifically between November and December [2].
The risk to the power grid is compounded by current water levels. National reservoirs are currently at 60% capacity [3]. This baseline suggests that further drought conditions could quickly push the system toward a critical threshold, increasing the likelihood of energy deficits.
The ministry said the resulting droughts reduce the efficiency of hydroelectric plants, which elevates the overall cost of generation [5]. This cost increase is typically passed on to consumers through higher utility bills.
Reports on the severity of the impact vary. Some sources said there is a direct risk of blackouts due to low reservoir levels [3], while others describe the situation as a general risk of supply instability without confirming imminent power failures [4].
The Colombian government is monitoring the climate patterns to determine if emergency measures are necessary to stabilize the grid before the anticipated peak of the drought late this year [1, 2].
“The early arrival of the El Niño phenomenon will raise electricity prices and risk supply shortages.”
The intersection of low current reservoir levels and a high probability of a 'Super Niño' places Colombia's energy security in a precarious position. Because the nation's grid is so dependent on water, any significant deviation in rainfall directly translates to economic volatility through price hikes and operational instability in the power sector.
