Right-wing voters in Colombia remain undecided between presidential candidate Paloma Valencia and other conservative rivals as the May 31, 2026, election nears [1].
This division within the right-wing bloc could determine whether a conservative candidate secures enough support to advance to the second round of voting. The fragmentation reflects a struggle for dominance among candidates who appeal to similar ideological bases but differ in temperament and strategy.
Data from the Polymarket prediction market indicates a significant gap in support between top right-wing contenders. Valencia's support is currently listed at 16% [2], while Abelardo de la Espriella has surged to 40% [2]. These figures suggest a shift in momentum toward de la Espriella as the primary choice for the right.
However, other metrics provide a different perspective on the race. Some reports citing Invamer suggest Valencia's support has doubled, positioning her as a strong contender for a second-round spot [3]. These reports also suggest that Iván Cepeda leads the overall intention of vote, contradicting the prediction market's focus on right-wing dominance [3].
Interpersonal conflicts between candidates have further complicated the race. Valencia and de la Espriella have engaged in public disputes regarding the nature of their campaigns and the willingness to debate. In a confrontation over political tactics, Valencia said, «El de las jugarretas eres tú» [4].
The tension stems from a perceived lack of cohesion among the right, as candidates fight for the loyalty of undecided voters. With the first round of the presidential election scheduled for May 31 [1], the ability of these candidates to consolidate their base will be critical to their success.
“«El de las jugarretas eres tú»”
The discrepancy between prediction market data and traditional polling suggests a high level of volatility and uncertainty among the Colombian electorate. If the right-wing vote remains split between Valencia and de la Espriella, it may inadvertently clear a path for a left-leaning or centrist candidate to dominate the first round, potentially forcing a conservative consolidation only in the final stage of the election.
