The Misión de Observación Electoral (MOE) identified 386 municipalities as high-risk zones for the upcoming presidential elections [1].
This assessment signals a volatile security environment that could jeopardize the integrity of the democratic process. Increased political violence and territorial disputes threaten both voters and candidates as the country approaches the polls.
The MOE published its report in March 2026, indicating that approximately 10% of Colombian municipalities are currently under electoral risk [2]. These "red zones" are characterized by a rise in political violence and the fragmentation of armed conflict, which the organization said increases the likelihood of incidents during the election day [3, 4].
Geographically, the risk is widespread across the country. The department of Antioquia is noted as the second department with the highest number of municipalities facing extreme risk [5]. The MOE said these elections carry more violence and higher risk compared to the 2022 cycle [6].
Not all officials agree with the MOE's specific data. José Luis Bastidas, the manager of the Democracy Plan for the Military Forces, said his report provides a different number of at-risk municipalities than the 386 cited by the MOE [7].
Despite these discrepancies in data, the underlying cause of the instability remains the struggle for territorial control. The fragmentation of armed groups has created a complex security landscape—one where local disputes often intersect with national political ambitions.
The presidential election is scheduled for May 31, 2026 [1]. Security forces and observers continue to monitor these high-risk areas to ensure the safety of the electorate.
“386 municipalities as high-risk zones”
The discrepancy between the MOE and military reports suggests a lack of consensus on the exact scale of the threat, but the shared concern over territorial fragmentation points to a systemic security crisis. If a significant portion of the country remains in 'red zones,' it could lead to voter suppression or contested results in key regions, complicating the transition of power in 2026.
