Colombia faces a high risk of power blackouts and gas shortages due to a growing deficit between energy demand and firm capacity.

The crisis threatens the stability of the national power grid and could severely impact the country's economic growth if generation projects continue to lag behind rising consumption.

Operador del Sistema Interconectado Nacional (XM) and the Colombian Chamber of Energy, represented by president Jorge Hernando Pedraza, have issued alerts regarding the precarious state of the energy supply. The risk is exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, which causes severe droughts and reduces the output of hydroelectric plants, the primary source of the nation's power.

Projections for 2026-2027 indicate a projected deficit of 4.4% [1] between firm energy and demand. This gap is driven by a combination of increased electricity consumption and delays in the commissioning of new generation projects. While some reports emphasize the role of project delays, others identify the El Niño phenomenon as the most determinant factor in the current risk level.

The Hidroituango hydroelectric complex remains a critical point of vulnerability. To avoid a total blackout, the reservoir must maintain a minimum operational level of 420 meters [4].

Financial instability within the sector further complicates the recovery. Air-e owes 2.6 trillion Colombian pesos [2] to generators and transmitters, creating a liquidity strain on the infrastructure providers.

Natalia Gutiérrez, president of Acolgen and the Gremial Council, addressed the severity of the situation. "Es altamente probable," Gutiérrez said regarding the risk of energy shortages.

The economic stakes are significant. Experts said that the energy and gas deficit could cost Colombia 1.5% of its gross domestic product [3].

“"Es altamente probable"”

The convergence of climate volatility and infrastructure delays has left Colombia with a narrow margin for error in its energy security. The reliance on hydroelectric power makes the national economy hypersensitive to weather patterns, while the financial debt of distributors like Air-e suggests that the crisis is as much about fiscal management as it is about environmental challenges.