The Colombian government recognized the probability of electrical rationing and warned of a potential nationwide blackout due to El Niño and system expansion delays.

This instability threatens the country's economic stability and food security. Because Colombia relies heavily on hydroelectric power, prolonged droughts caused by climate phenomena can cripple the national grid and increase inflation.

Experts indicate that the risk of rationing could materialize starting in the second semester of 2026 [1]. Other estimates from the Comptroller's Office suggest the risk exists in less than two years [2], while some reports point to the beginning of 2027 as the critical window [3].

Juan Ricardo Ortega, president of Grupo Energía Bogotá, said there is a real possibility of a blackout if urgent measures are not taken. This warning comes amid a lack of new generation projects and delays in executing existing works.

Andrés Gómez, president of the National Association of Generating Companies (Andeg), said the ghost of a blackout cannot be denied. The situation is further complicated by financial pressure on the electricity market.

Some industry representatives argue that tax policies are stifling the coal sector, which could otherwise provide a buffer against hydroelectric shortages. Carlos Pérez, a former director of the Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG), said the country is facing an energy crisis similar to the one seen in the 1990s.

The government's challenge involves balancing its environmental goals with the immediate need for thermal energy to prevent a systemic collapse of the power grid.

“"There is a real possibility of a blackout if urgent measures are not taken."”

The intersection of climate volatility and policy-driven shifts away from fossil fuels has left Colombia's energy grid vulnerable. If the government cannot accelerate new generation projects or reconcile its tax policies with the coal industry's ability to provide emergency power, the country faces a systemic risk that could mirror the economic disruptions of the 1990s.