Colombia's Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) said El Niño will reduce rainfall and increase temperatures starting in September [1, 2].

This shift in weather patterns poses a significant risk to the nation's water security and agricultural productivity. Because the phenomenon alters precipitation levels across much of the territory, the government must prepare for potential droughts and heat-related crises.

Conditions associated with El Niño are already present in the atmosphere and the equatorial Pacific [1]. A representative from IDEAM said the probability of the phenomenon occurring in Colombia has risen from 62% to 82% [2]. The agency said the event is expected to intensify faster than previously anticipated [2].

IDEAM forecasts a decrease in precipitation across a large portion of the national territory beginning in September [1]. The agency said that the highest intensity of the phenomenon is expected in December 2026 [1]. These weather effects may persist through March 2027 [1].

While IDEAM expects the phenomenon to intensify, the agency said it does not anticipate a historic level of strength [1]. This contrasts with some external models suggesting the 2026 event could be the strongest ever recorded. Additionally, while the peak is expected in December, some meteorologists said that the pattern was already generating unprecedented heat waves in the region as early as June [3].

Local authorities are monitoring the situation as the country prepares for a drier end to the year. The agency said the combination of reduced rain, and higher temperatures, will likely create challenging conditions for rural communities and urban water systems [1].

“The probability of the phenomenon of El Niño has passed from 62% to 82%”

The acceleration of El Niño's intensity suggests a compressed window for Colombia to implement drought mitigation strategies. With a high probability of 82% and potential effects lasting into early 2027, the focus shifts from mere observation to active resource management to prevent agricultural failure and water shortages in major cities.