Iván Cepeda leads the presidential intention-to-vote race in Colombia according to a new Invamer poll [1].
The results provide an early glimpse into the political landscape for the 2026 elections, signaling a potential shift in voter preference as candidates begin to refine their campaign strategies.
Released on April 26, 2024 [6], the survey was conducted by the research firm Invamer for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio. The data shows Cepeda holding a lead with 44.3% of the intention-to-vote [1].
Following Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella holds 21.5% [1], while Paloma Valencia follows with 19.8% [1]. Other candidates trail, including Claudia López, who registered at 3.6% [1].
Valencia reacted to the findings by emphasizing her trajectory. "Somos la campaña que más crece," Valencia said [2]. She further suggested that her platform is positioned to challenge the current leader in a runoff, stating, "Somos la campaña que le puede ganar a Cepeda en segunda vuelta" [3].
Analysts noted the demographic makeup of the survey participants to provide context for the numbers. Approximately 70% of the sample consisted of individuals from socioeconomic strata one to three [5].
The poll was designed to measure public support ahead of the first round of the 2026 presidential election [4]. This data allows candidates to identify gaps in their reach, and target specific voter segments as the national campaign progresses.
“Iván Cepeda leads the presidential intention-to-vote race in Colombia”
The wide gap between Cepeda and his nearest rivals suggests a strong initial consolidation of support for his platform, particularly among lower socioeconomic strata. However, the reactions from candidates like Paloma Valencia indicate that the opposition is focusing on growth momentum and the potential for a second-round victory, where coalition-building becomes the primary driver of success.
