Colombia faces potential electricity rationing as a projected "Super Niño" weather event threatens to leave the national grid unable to meet full demand.
This vulnerability stems from a heavy reliance on hydroelectric power. Because the phenomenon causes severe drought, low water levels could trigger widespread power outages across the country during the second half of 2026 [2, 4].
Experts indicate the probability of this high-intensity El Niño event occurring exceeds 80% [1]. Under these conditions, the national electrical system might cover only 90% of the total electrical demand [2]. This gap creates a significant risk of rationing to maintain grid stability.
Amil Acosta, a former minister of Mines and Energy, said the country faces a deficit of firm energy and a limited capacity to cover all demand in scenarios of low hydrology [1]. This lack of diversified energy sources leaves the grid exposed when rainfall drops.
The Asociación Nacional de Empresas Generadoras (Andeg) has urged the government to implement strategies to shield the electrical system [3]. A representative of Andeg said it is necessary for the government to establish schemes to anticipate the phenomenon and blind the electrical system [3].
In response to these risks, President Gustavo Petro presented 50 measures designed to anticipate El Niño and protect the energy supply [3]. Petro said the country cannot wait and that these measures are essential to prevent risks to the energetic system [3].
The government's plan aims to mitigate the impact of the drought before the peak of the phenomenon arrives later this year [4]. However, the effectiveness of these measures depends on the speed of implementation, and the severity of the water shortage.
“The national electrical system might cover only 90% of the total electrical demand.”
Colombia's energy security is deeply tied to its hydrology. A 'Super Niño' event represents a systemic risk where the lack of rainfall directly translates to a loss of generating capacity. If the 10% deficit in demand cannot be offset by thermal plants or imports, the government will be forced to implement scheduled blackouts to prevent a total collapse of the national grid.
