The global commercial space economy could reach approximately $1 trillion by the 2040s, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs [1].
This growth signals a shift from government-led exploration to a scalable commercial market. Lower costs and new technology are allowing private companies to establish permanent infrastructure in orbit, creating an entirely new asset class for investors.
Michael Tarulli and Erik Sparks, investment banking analysts at Goldman Sachs, said that falling launch costs and the application of artificial intelligence are driving this rapid expansion [1]. The cost per pound to reach orbit has already fallen by more than 90% since the inception of modern rocketry [2].
Projections suggest that the cost of reaching orbit will more than halve by the end of the decade [3]. By 2040, those costs are forecast to fall by around 93% [3]. These reductions make space accessible to a wider range of commercial actors who previously lacked the capital to enter the market.
Artificial intelligence is further expanding these opportunities by enabling autonomous operations, and satellite data analytics [4]. New services are emerging, including orbital data centers, and space-based solar power [5]. Some estimates place the valuation of a SpaceX-related orbital economy at $2 trillion [5].
The current global space economy is valued at $613 billion [6]. Analysts said that accelerating satellite deployment is transforming the sector into a compelling investment theme as the industry moves from a blueprint phase into a functional economy [6].
“The global commercial space economy could reach approximately $1 trillion by the 2040s”
The transition of space from a state-funded scientific endeavor to a trillion-dollar commercial sector depends on the continued collapse of launch costs. By integrating AI and data centers into orbit, the industry is moving beyond simple satellite communications toward a complex industrial ecosystem. This shift suggests that orbital infrastructure will soon be viewed as essential utility hardware rather than experimental technology.
