Health expert Dr. Payal Kohli said the newest wave of COVID-19 is expected to persist and the virus is "here to stay" [1].
This persistence suggests that the virus has transitioned into a permanent, seasonal fixture of global public health. The ongoing circulation means that healthcare systems must maintain long-term readiness rather than treating the virus as a temporary crisis.
Speaking with 9 NEWS Australia, Kohli said the epidemiological patterns associated with the latest surge [1]. These patterns align with recent data showing a summer increase in cases. In the U.S., wastewater data and epidemiological trends have indicated a surge during the summer months [3, 4].
While the virus continues to circulate, the impact varies by region. In South Africa, reports from April 2022 showed 3,722,954 total confirmed cases [5] and a seven-day average positivity rate of 5.8% [6]. On the latest reporting day for that period, the country saw 889 new cases [7].
Some reports suggest varying trajectories for the virus. While Kohli emphasizes the permanent nature of the virus, other data from South Africa suggested that hospitalizations had decreased and new cases showed only a slight uptick, indicating some waves may recede [8].
Despite these fluctuations, the general consensus among experts like Kohli is that the virus will not disappear. The reliance on wastewater data has become a primary tool for tracking these shifts, as it provides an early warning system for community spread before clinical cases are officially reported [4].
“"It's here to stay."”
The shift toward viewing COVID-19 as an endemic, seasonal virus changes the focus of public health from eradication to management. By monitoring wastewater and seasonal patterns, health officials can predict surges and manage hospital capacity without the emergency mandates seen in the early years of the pandemic.
