Eduardo Paes (PSD) leads all simulated scenarios for the government of Rio de Janeiro according to a new Paraná Pesquisas survey [1, 2].
The results suggest a potential first-round victory for Paes, which would fundamentally shift the political landscape of the state by bypassing a runoff election.
According to a report released Thursday, July 2, Paes holds 54.2% of voting intentions in one simulated scenario [1]. In that same scenario, Douglas Ruas follows as the second-place candidate with 14.6% [1]. This significant gap indicates a consolidated lead for the former mayor as the race for the Palácio Guanabara intensifies.
Other reports on the survey vary slightly in their data. A version of the data released on Thursday, July 4, placed Paes' voting intention at 48.3% [3]. Despite the discrepancy between the 48.3% [3] and 54.2% [1] figures, Paes remains isolated in the lead across different polling scenarios [4, 5].
The survey indicates that Paes maintains this dominance not only in the first-round simulations but also in potential second-round matchups [1, 2]. The consistency of his lead across various scenarios suggests a broad base of support among the electorate in Rio de Janeiro.
Political analysts said that the current lead puts Paes in a position to potentially secure the governorship without the need for a second vote — a rare occurrence in highly contested state elections [3].
“Eduardo Paes leads all simulated scenarios for the government of Rio de Janeiro”
The polling data indicates a strong consolidation of support for Eduardo Paes, placing him well above the 50% threshold required to win in a single round. If these numbers hold, the competition for the Rio de Janeiro governorship may shift from a battle for victory to a struggle for other candidates to find a viable path to a runoff.
