Rio de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds a commanding lead in a new poll for the 2026 gubernatorial election [1].
The results suggest a potential shift in the state's political landscape if Paes can translate his municipal popularity into a statewide victory. His current standing indicates a strong consolidated base of support ahead of the upcoming election cycle.
Data released Thursday by Paraná Pesquisas shows Paes with 60% [1] of the vote in a simulated second-round runoff against Douglas Ruas, who holds 24.5% [1]. The poll indicates that Paes may not even require a runoff, as he currently holds 48.3% [4] support in the first round.
In the first-round scenario, Douglas Ruas trails with 12.6% [4], while Anthony Garotinho follows with 9.2% [5]. The survey was conducted between June 1 and June 3, 2026 [8], and included a sample size of 1,680 people [6].
The poll carries a margin of error of 2.4 points [7]. These figures place Paes as the frontrunner in the race for the governor's office, a position that provides him significant leverage in forming political coalitions.
As the 2026 election cycle progresses, the gap between Paes and his closest competitors remains wide. The data highlights a stark contrast in voter preference between the current mayor and the other primary contenders for the state's leadership.
“Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds a commanding lead in a new poll for the 2026 gubernatorial election”
The polling data suggests that Eduardo Paes has successfully expanded his appeal beyond the city of Rio de Janeiro to the broader state level. If these numbers hold, Paes possesses a rare level of first-round momentum that could discourage other candidates from entering the race or force them to seek alliances with his campaign to remain viable.
