Climate scientists and the Centro de Previsão Climática report an 80% probability [1] of a new El Niño event forming by the end of 2026 [2].
This phenomenon threatens to destabilize the Amazon basin by reducing rainfall and increasing temperatures. Such conditions heighten the risk of severe droughts and uncontrollable wildfires, which can trigger humanitarian crises in the region.
The alert focuses heavily on the Northern Region of Brazil, with states such as Rondônia identified as particularly vulnerable [3]. Experts said that the region is still recovering from the impacts of drought and extreme heat experienced between 2023 and 2024 [1].
"There is an 80% probability of a new El Niño event forming by the end of 2026," the Centro de Previsão Climática said [1].
While most models point to the end of 2026 [2], some climate projections extend the high probability of the event's formation into 2027 [4]. Climatologists from the National Institute of Meteorology said that while the probability of formation is high, uncertainty remains regarding the actual intensity of the event [4].
Some researchers are specifically concerned about the possibility of a "super El Niño" [2]. Specialists from the Federal University of Amazonas said this possibility is worrying due to the recent climate fragility observed in the rainforest [2].
The interaction between warming Pacific waters and the Amazonian ecosystem often leads to prolonged dry seasons. This lack of moisture makes the dense rainforest more susceptible to fire, potentially accelerating carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss.
“There is an 80% probability of a new El Niño event forming by the end of 2026.”
The potential return of El Niño represents a compounding threat to the Amazon's resilience. Because the region suffered significant heat and drought during 2023-2024, a second major event within a short window could push the ecosystem toward a tipping point where the rainforest can no longer sustain its own rainfall cycles.
