A strong El Niño climate phenomenon may reduce agricultural production and increase food prices across Brazil [1], [2].
This shift threatens the stability of the Brazilian food supply chain by altering the rainfall and temperature patterns essential for crop growth. Because Brazil is a global agricultural powerhouse, significant production drops can trigger price volatility for both domestic consumers and international markets.
Forecasts indicate a probability of more than 60% [1] for a very strong El Niño episode. This period of intense activity is expected to occur between November 2026 and January 2027 [1], [3]. The phenomenon is driven by the abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean waters, which disrupts global weather systems and leads to irregular precipitation [1], [4], [3].
Agricultural experts said vegetables are the first crops likely to be affected by these changing conditions [1]. If the El Niño event intensifies, price increases are expected for several staple products, including coffee, corn, fruits, and milk [2].
While some reports focus specifically on agricultural output and food costs [2], other assessments suggest a broader range of impacts. These may include disruptions to energy production, water supply, and public health [5]. Some analysts have said the potential event is a "super-El Niño" [6].
Farmers in major agricultural regions are currently facing increased uncertainty regarding their upcoming harvests [2], [4]. The combination of reduced yields and higher demand typically pushes the cost of basic goods higher for the general population.
“Probability of a very strong El Niño episode [is] more than 60%”
The potential for a severe El Niño event creates a dual risk of food insecurity and inflation in Brazil. By disrupting the production of staples like corn and coffee, the event may force the government to adjust import-export balances to maintain domestic supply, while consumers face higher costs for basic nutrition.
