The El Niño phenomenon is currently affecting the 2026 Brazilian harvest, adding to the pressure on agricultural production caused by climate change [1].

This disruption threatens food security and economic stability in one of the world's largest agricultural hubs. The convergence of natural climate cycles and long-term environmental shifts is altering rain patterns and temperatures, leading to a volatile cycle of droughts and floods.

Southern Brazil has faced a grueling sequence of weather extremes, including three consecutive years of drought followed by one year of flooding [2]. This instability has left the region vulnerable as the current El Niño event takes hold. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the formation of El Niño is now official [3].

Carlos Altieri, president of Yara, is working in partnership with Embrapa to help farmers navigate these conditions. He said that agricultural practices, nutritional programs, and soil management can help producers reduce losses and achieve the best possible results [1].

Experts warn that the intensity of this event could be severe. There is a 63% probability that El Niño will reach a very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027 [4]. Celeste Saulo said that El Niño can exacerbate droughts and intense rains, while increasing the risk of heatwaves [5].

These shifts are not isolated events. Scientists cited by BBC Brasil said they fear the combined effects of El Niño and climate change could reconfigure weather patterns across the entire globe [6]. For Brazilian farmers, the immediate priority remains soil resilience and nutrient management to protect the current crop cycle from these unpredictable swings.

“Práticas agrícolas, programas nutricionais e manejo do solo podem ajudar o produtor a reduzir perdas”

The intersection of a strong El Niño and systemic climate change is transforming the agricultural landscape in Southern Brazil from a predictable cycle into a high-risk environment. By shifting focus toward soil management and nutritional programs, the industry is attempting to build a biological buffer against weather volatility, acknowledging that traditional farming calendars may no longer be reliable.