El Niño is beginning to influence Brazil's weather, bringing higher temperatures and increased rainfall across the country [1, 2].

These shifts are critical because they coincide with the early planting season for the 2026/27 harvest [1], potentially disrupting one of the world's most productive agricultural zones.

The phenomenon is driven by the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which alters global atmospheric circulation [4, 5]. In Brazil, this typically results in above-average precipitation and heat. Climatologist Dr. Ana Lúcia Pereira said the winter of 2026 will be more humid and hotter than the historical average [3].

Winter effects officially began on June 21, 2026 [3]. While some analysts noted early signs of influence previously, significant impacts are now aligning with the current seasonal transition [1, 3].

Rio Grande do Sul is expected to see a particular increase in rainfall in the coming weeks [2]. A spokesperson for MetSul Meteorologia said the increased rain in that region could impact the soybean crop [2].

Forecasts suggest the event will intensify over the coming months. Analysts from CNN Brasil said El Niño may reach a "very strong" category between September and November 2026 [1]. Other reports have characterized the forming event as a "Super El Niño," suggesting an even more extreme classification [3].

Pedro Côrtes of CNN Brasil said the first signs show the phenomenon is already affecting the climate, especially in planting regions [1]. The combination of heat and erratic rain patterns remains a primary concern for farmers preparing for the upcoming season [1, 2].

“The winter of 2026 will be more humid and quente than the historical average.”

The convergence of a potentially 'very strong' El Niño with the 2026/27 planting window creates a high-risk scenario for Brazilian agribusiness. Because Brazil is a global leader in soybean and grain exports, extreme weather in Rio Grande do Sul and other planting zones could trigger volatility in international commodity prices and disrupt global food supply chains.