The El Niño phenomenon is consolidating and will create atypical weather patterns for the Brazilian winter starting June 21, 2024 [1].
This shift in climate patterns is significant because it disrupts traditional seasonal expectations, potentially impacting agriculture and urban infrastructure across three major regions of the country.
Pedro Côrtes, a climate and environment analyst for CNN Brasil, said the phenomenon will alter the typical winter patterns as it strengthens over the coming weeks [2]. According to Côrtes, the Center-West and Southeast regions of Brazil will experience temperatures that remain above the historical average [1].
While the northern and central regions face warmer conditions, the South of the country is expected to face a different set of challenges. Côrtes said the South will experience intense rainfall [1].
Scientists have expressed varying levels of concern regarding the intensity of the event. Some reports indicate that new forecasts have increased worries among researchers about the possibility of a strong and potentially very strong El Niño developing in the coming months [3]. Other reports suggest the phenomenon will simply consolidate in the near term without specifying an extraordinary level of strength [2].
This atmospheric shift follows the official start of the southern hemisphere winter, which occurred on June 21, 2024 [1]. The consolidation of El Niño typically involves the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which subsequently shifts global wind patterns and precipitation levels.
“Regiões Centro‑Oeste e Sudeste terão temperaturas acima da média, enquanto o Sul terá chuvas intensas.”
The divergence in weather patterns — warmth in the Center-West/Southeast and flooding risks in the South — creates a dual economic challenge for Brazil. Higher temperatures in the interior can stress livestock and crop yields, while intense rainfall in the South often leads to infrastructure damage and logistics disruptions in key agricultural corridors.
