An El Niño event is very likely to trigger in the early summer of 2026, according to climatologist Françoise Vimeux [1].
This development is significant because El Niño patterns can disrupt global weather, potentially exacerbating the effects of global warming on an already overheating planet [2, 3].
Speaking on France Inter, Vimeux said, "It is very likely that there will be an El Niño event that triggers at the beginning of the summer" [1]. The phenomenon is expected to begin during June and July 2026 [1, 2].
The event originates as an oceanic phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific [1]. While Vimeux said the event is not expected to impact metropolitan France, it poses a potential risk to French overseas territories [1].
Climate models and seasonal forecasts indicate the trigger is linked to global ocean temperatures reaching record levels [2, 3]. These conditions reflect the broader trend of global climate warming [2, 3].
Reports regarding the potential for a "super El Niño" began surfacing as early as April 9, 2026 [2]. The forecasts suggest the planet is continuing to overheat, creating the necessary conditions for the event to manifest this summer [3, 4].
“"It is very likely that there will be an El Niño event that triggers at the beginning of the summer"”
The predicted emergence of El Niño in 2026 underscores the volatility of current oceanic temperatures. Because El Niño typically shifts precipitation and temperature patterns globally, its interaction with existing record-high ocean temperatures could lead to more extreme weather events, particularly in the Pacific region and associated overseas territories.
