A returning El Niño is expected to weaken the Indian monsoon, potentially reducing crop output and raising food inflation across the country [1, 2].
This weather shift threatens the broader Indian economy because a significant portion of the nation's agriculture relies on seasonal rains to maintain yields and stabilize food prices [1, 2].
El Niño occurs when the central Pacific Ocean warms, which disrupts atmospheric circulation and reduces the rainfall typically delivered by the Indian monsoon [1, 2]. This cycle is currently creating a widening rainfall deficit [1]. Experts said the phenomenon could reduce monsoon rainfall by up to 10 percent [2].
The impact is expected to be most severe in monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, including the Indo-Gangetic plains, as well as central and western states [2, 4]. Reduced water availability typically leads to lower agricultural yields, which puts immediate pressure on rural incomes [1, 2].
Beyond the farms, the shortage of crops is expected to filter into consumer markets. Food price inflation could rise by two to three percentage points as a result of the supply crunch [3].
Siraj Hussain, India's former Agriculture Secretary, said the risks associated with the returning weather pattern [1]. The combination of reduced crop output and rising costs creates a volatile economic environment for both rural producers and urban consumers [1, 3].
“El Niño could reduce monsoon rainfall by up to 10 percent.”
The intersection of climate volatility and food security poses a systemic risk to India's GDP growth. Because rural consumption is a primary driver of the domestic economy, a decline in agricultural income combined with rising food costs can suppress overall consumer spending and force the government to increase food imports to stabilize prices.
