A new poll from Instituto Gerp shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) would defeat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a hypothetical second-round runoff [1].
The results suggest a potential shift in the Brazilian political landscape as the 2026 election cycle progresses. The data highlights the current standing of the Bolsonaro family's influence against the incumbent administration's support base.
According to the data released on Thursday, May 14, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 50% support [2] while President Lula holds 43% [2]. This gap reflects a seven-point lead for the senator in a direct head-to-head scenario [2].
Instituto Gerp released the findings this week to gauge voter intentions for a possible second-round matchup [1]. The poll was conducted and released before a scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro became public knowledge [1].
Other polling data presents a more varied picture of the race. A separate poll from BTG Pactual/Nexus showed a more balanced or stagnant scenario than the Gerp results [3]. Additionally, a Genial/Quaest poll reported that Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula by a small margin in a general poll, though that specific study did not focus exclusively on a second-round scenario [4].
Despite these variations, the Gerp poll provides a snapshot of a polarized electorate. The 50% to 43% split underscores the enduring strength of the PL party's core voters, a demographic that remains critical to the outcome of the national vote [2].
“Flávio Bolsonaro holds 50% support while President Lula holds 43%”
The disparity between the Gerp poll and other surveys, such as those from BTG Pactual/Nexus and Genial/Quaest, indicates a high level of volatility in Brazilian voter sentiment. Because the Gerp results were finalized before the emergence of the Daniel Vorcaro scandal, the 50% support level for Flávio Bolsonaro may not reflect current public opinion, potentially altering the projected lead in future polling cycles.
