Senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) saw his voting intention drop to 41.8% in a poll released Tuesday, May 19, 2024 [1].
This decline suggests a shifting momentum in the Brazilian presidential race as the candidate struggles to maintain a lead against the incumbent. The loss of support follows a period of internal campaign instability and public controversies.
The new data shows Bolsonaro's support fell by six percentage points since April [1]. In the previous survey, his voting intention stood at 47.8% [1]. During that same prior period, President Lula held 47.5% of the voting intention [1].
In the most recent figures, President Lula has moved ahead with 48.9% support [1]. Analysts said this trend is due to a series of sequential errors within the campaign strategy, a pattern that has eroded the candidate's standing with voters.
A significant factor in this downturn is a scandal involving a leaked audio recording. The recording involves the PL pre-candidate and former banker Daniel Vorcaro [1, 2]. This controversy has coincided with the reported decline in polling numbers.
The current gap between the two front-runners reflects the impact of these campaign missteps. While Bolsonaro previously held a slight edge over Lula, the latest numbers place him more than seven points behind the president [1].
“Flávio Bolsonaro saw his voting intention drop to 41.8%”
The polling shift indicates that the PL campaign is struggling to manage crisis communications and candidate image. The slide from a near-deadlock to a seven-point deficit suggests that the audio scandal involving Daniel Vorcaro has resonated with a segment of the electorate, potentially alienating undecided voters or damaging the candidate's perceived reliability.
