Kentucky Derby Winner Golden Tempo Viewed as Fade for Belmont Stakes

Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo is considered a fade for the upcoming Belmont Stakes, with experts favoring a 12-1 longshot [1, 2].

The assessment comes as the racing world prepares for Saturday's event at Saratoga Race Course. Whether Golden Tempo can maintain his dominance determines if the 2026 season will produce a rare Triple Crown champion.

Racing expert Gene Menez and other analysts said the blistering early pace of the Kentucky Derby is a primary concern ^[1]. In that race, Golden Tempo recorded a first quarter-mile time of under 23 seconds and a half-mile time of under 47 seconds [4, 5]. This high-speed start suggests a pace challenge that could blunt the horse's signature front-running style in the longer Belmont stretch.

Further complicating the odds is the starting position. Golden Tempo will start from the furthest outside post ^[3]. This positioning often forces a horse to cover more ground, or fight for a position that disrupts their natural rhythm.

While some reports suggest Golden Tempo has the opportunity to win two of the three premier events, others said he is not among the horses to bet on [1, 2]. This divide reflects the volatility of Triple Crown betting, where a single bad draw or pace collapse can shift the outcome.

Historical data underscores the difficulty of the feat. Only three horses have claimed the Triple Crown since 1978 ^[7]. Consequently, many analysts expect no Triple Crown winner in 2026 ^[6].

Bettors are instead looking toward a 12-1 longshot as a more viable play [1, 2]. This shift in confidence highlights the strategic pivot experts make when a favorite's running style clashes with the specific demands of the Saratoga track.