Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude price forecast to $80 per barrel [1].
The revision follows an interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which has reduced the geopolitical risk premium affecting global energy markets. This shift signals a potential stabilization of oil prices after a period of volatility linked to Middle East tensions.
The bank previously forecasted the fourth-quarter price at $90 per barrel [2]. The adjustment comes as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz accelerates the recovery of oil supplies from the Middle East [1].
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said analysts and investors underappreciated the flexibility in global oil markets during the conflict.
Despite the lowered outlook, the bank warned that the market remains sensitive to diplomatic shifts. A Goldman Sachs analyst said prices could still surge above $130 per barrel if geopolitical tensions return [3].
The announcement was reported on June 16, 2026 [4]. The bank's updated projection reflects a belief that the combined effect of the Hormuz reopening and the peace deal will outweigh previous supply fears.
“Goldman Sachs cut its fourth‑quarter Brent forecast to $80 a barrel.”
The reduction in the Brent crude forecast highlights how heavily oil pricing relies on the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy transit. By lowering the estimate from $90 to $80, Goldman Sachs is acknowledging that the market's ability to pivot and recover supply is faster than previously modeled, though the $130 ceiling suggests that a fragile peace remains the primary variable in energy inflation.
