U.S. federal prosecutors charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo with using confidential search-trend data to place bets on Polymarket [1].
The case highlights the potential for insider information to distort prediction markets, which are increasingly used to forecast political and cultural events. It also underscores the security risks associated with employees having access to proprietary, real-time user behavior data.
Spagnuolo, 36 [2], is accused of leveraging his position at Google to access internal search trends that were not available to the public [1]. According to the Justice Department, this insider information allowed him to place high-probability bets on the prediction-market platform Polymarket [3].
Prosecutors allege that Spagnuolo earned more than $1.2 million [4] through these activities. The charges include violations of securities and fraud laws, as the government said that using non-public corporate data for personal financial gain constitutes a crime [3].
Reports on the specific nature of the bets vary. One account indicates Spagnuolo bet on the singer D4VD becoming the most-searched person of the year in 2025 [1]. Other reports suggest the bets were related to different claims involving the same individual [5].
Spagnuolo resides in Switzerland, while the charges were brought by federal prosecutors in the United States [1]. The investigation into the scope of the data breach, and whether other employees were involved, continues [3].
“Michele Spagnuolo allegedly used confidential trend data to earn $1.2 million on the prediction market Polymarket.”
This prosecution signals a growing regulatory interest in 'insider trading' within prediction markets. While traditional securities laws focus on stocks, the U.S. government is now applying fraud and securities frameworks to the use of proprietary data in decentralized betting platforms. This may lead to stricter internal data access controls at major tech firms to prevent employees from monetizing private user trends.
