Daily oil exports from Gulf Cooperation Council countries rose modestly in July 2026 despite remaining far below levels seen before the regional war [1, 2].

The shortfall persists as security tensions continue to restrict shipping capacity through two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Because the Gulf provides a massive portion of the global energy supply, these restricted volumes maintain pressure on international markets.

The GCC oil-exporting nations — Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain — face ongoing logistical hurdles [1, 2]. Security risks associated with the war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have limited the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab strait [1, 2].

Recent data shows a volatile trend in export volumes. In June 2026, exports jumped by more than three million barrels per day compared with May 2026 [2]. While this represents a short-term rebound, it does not erase the broader trend of a historic contraction in the region's energy output.

According to reports, daily Gulf oil exports are currently about 60% lower than pre-war levels [1]. The disparity between recent monthly gains and the long-term decline highlights the difficulty of returning to normal trade operations while active conflict persists in the surrounding waters.

Shipping companies and national oil firms must navigate these high-risk zones under constant threat. The modest rise in July suggests a slight improvement in transit stability, but the overall volume remains suppressed by the prevailing security environment [1, 2].

“Daily Gulf oil exports are currently about 60% lower than pre-war levels”

The gap between the recent monthly uptick and the 60% overall decline indicates that while tactical shipping windows may open briefly, the structural impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict remains the dominant factor. Until the security status of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab stabilizes, the global energy market will likely continue to experience a deficit in Gulf-sourced supply, regardless of short-term fluctuations.