Medical experts say the probability that hantavirus will cause a new pandemic comparable to COVID-19 is very low [1, 2].

These assessments aim to calm public concern regarding the virus's ability to spread globally. Because the virus typically lacks the capacity for widespread human-to-human transmission, experts argue it does not pose the same systemic risk as previous global health crises.

Dr. Juan Rivera, an infectious-disease expert, discussed the risk during an interview on Univision’s N+ channel program "Esta Semana" [1]. He said that the specific characteristics of the virus limit its potential for a massive surge in cases across different continents.

"La probabilidad de que el hantavirus cause una pandemia es muy baja," Rivera said [1].

Dr. Gaspar Domínguez, an epidemiologist, provided further context based on his experience managing outbreaks. Domínguez led the response to a significant hantavirus outbreak in 2019 [2] that occurred in Epuyén, Patagonia, across the Argentina and Chile border [1, 2].

Domínguez said that the virus does not have the biological profile required to sustain a global pandemic [2]. He said that the 2019 event was geographically contained, a key factor in why the virus remains a localized threat rather than a global one [1, 2].

"No tiene potencial pandémico," Domínguez said [2].

Experts emphasized that hantavirus transmission is primarily linked to environmental exposure rather than sustained community spread between people [1, 2]. While local outbreaks can be severe, the lack of efficient human-to-human transmission prevents the exponential growth seen in respiratory pandemics.

“"La probabilidad de que el hantavirus cause una pandemia es muy baja."”

The distinction between a localized outbreak and a pandemic depends on the 'R0' or basic reproduction number—how many people one infected person typically infects. Because hantavirus primarily jumps from animals to humans and rarely spreads between people, it lacks the transmission mechanism necessary to trigger a global event, regardless of the severity of individual cases.