Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are choking global fertilizer shipments and driving up prices, risking a worldwide food emergency.
This crisis threatens global food security because the narrow waterway between Oman and Iran is a critical artery for agricultural inputs. Without steady access to these chemicals, farmers worldwide face higher costs and lower crop yields, which could trigger widespread famine.
United Nations officials said the current instability may push up to 45 million people into hunger [4]. The risk is amplified by the heavy reliance of the global market on Gulf state exports. These nations supply 41 percent of the world's urea [2], a primary component in nitrogen-based fertilizers.
Approximately one-third of the world's fertilizer normally passes through the strait [1]. As shipments have slowed or stopped, the cost of nitrogen urea has risen by roughly 80 percent since February [3].
Industry analysts said the shock extends beyond urea to other essential chemicals like sulfur. The combined effect of these supply chain failures creates a commodity shock that impacts everything from industrial manufacturing to basic sustenance.
Agricultural sectors in developing nations are particularly vulnerable to these price spikes. While wealthier nations may absorb the cost, smaller economies often lack the subsidies needed to keep farming viable when input prices surge. The UN said the window to prevent a full-scale humanitarian disaster is closing as the disruption continues this month.
“The current instability may push up to 45 million people into hunger.”
The situation highlights the extreme vulnerability of the global food system to regional geopolitical instability. Because the Strait of Hormuz serves as a single point of failure for a massive share of the world's fertilizer, a localized conflict can rapidly transform into a global humanitarian crisis by inflating the cost of calorie production.
