IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said the company's quantum computing efforts will generate meaningful revenue and impact earnings by 2028 or 2029 [1].
This projection suggests a shift from theoretical research to commercial viability for a technology that has long been viewed as a distant prospect. If IBM achieves this timeline, it could accelerate the adoption of quantum processing across industries like pharmaceuticals, and finance.
Speaking in a CNBC interview in July, Krishna said quantum computing will begin generating meaningful revenue before the decade ends [2]. He said the company expects a measurable impact on revenue and earnings by 2028 or 2029 [1].
These financial goals follow recent technical milestones. According to a report from Chemical & Engineering News, IBM's quantum computers now outperform all known classical algorithms for three distinct tasks [3]. This performance is a key requirement for establishing "quantum advantage," where a quantum machine solves a problem that a classical computer cannot solve in a reasonable timeframe.
However, the immediate commercial significance of these breakthroughs remains a point of debate. While IBM reports technical success, some analysts said that proving quantum advantage in an absolute sense is difficult and verification remains challenging [1]. Additionally, some market observers said that recent technical hurdles cleared by IBM failed to move the company's stock, implying that investors may not yet see an immediate commercial payoff [1].
Despite these contradictions, Krishna remains optimistic about the trajectory of the technology. The company continues to develop its hardware at facilities such as the IBM Quantum Lab in New York to turn these milestones into a sustainable business line [2].
“"Quantum computing will begin generating meaningful revenue before the decade ends."”
IBM is attempting to move quantum computing from the laboratory to the balance sheet. By setting a specific window of 2028-2029 for earnings impact, the company is signaling to investors that the technology has reached a level of maturity where it can solve practical problems more efficiently than classical computers. The tension between IBM's technical claims and the muted stock market reaction reflects a broader industry struggle to prove that quantum advantage can be scaled into a profitable product.
