Global oil inventories are falling at a record pace as disruptions from the Iran war push supply below demand, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

The rapid depletion of reserves threatens to trigger renewed price volatility and prolong a global market deficit for several months.

Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, said the market remains under significant pressure. The agency reported that global oil supply shrank by 1.8 million barrels per day in April 2026 [1]. This contributes to a larger trend of instability in the Middle East region, specifically affecting the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to IEA data, the cumulative loss in oil supply since February 2026 has reached 12.8 million barrels per day [1]. These losses have forced countries to rely more heavily on existing stocks, leading to the current record-setting draw-downs.

Bosoni said the recovery of the supply chain will not be instantaneous. "Even if the war ends, it will take weeks and months for oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal," Bosoni said.

The IEA report, published May 13, 2026 [2], suggests that the deficit will persist well into the future. The agency said that the constraints on supply are primarily driven by the ongoing conflict, which has limited the ability of producers to move oil through critical maritime chokepoints.

Because inventories are falling so quickly, the global market has less of a buffer to absorb further shocks. This vulnerability increases the likelihood of sharp price swings as buyers compete for a diminishing pool of available crude.

“Global oil inventories are falling at a record pace”

The record depletion of oil inventories removes the primary safety net that usually stabilizes global energy prices during geopolitical crises. With a cumulative supply loss of millions of barrels per day and a damaged logistics corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy faces a period of structural deficit where demand cannot be met by current production, potentially leading to sustained inflation in energy costs.