The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects the 2026 southwest monsoon will cover most of India by July 5 [1].
This forecast is critical for India's agricultural sector and water security, as the seasonal rains drive the majority of the country's crop production. The timing and volume of the monsoon directly impact food prices and economic stability across the region.
According to the IMD, the monsoon is expected to arrive on the Kerala coast around June 1, 2026 [2]. The agency previously noted that the onset over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands likely occurred around May 14-16 [3].
An IMD spokesperson said, "The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala coast on time in early June given the current conditions" [2].
Weather officials said that the progression will move northward from the coast to cover the rest of the country by the first week of July [1]. However, the overall intensity of the season remains a point of contention among reporting sources. Some data suggests the monsoon will be below-normal, with overall rainfall estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) [4]. Other reports have suggested an above-normal season [5].
Climate patterns are expected to play a significant role in the rainfall distribution. The IMD forecast includes the development of an El Niño event in July 2026 [2]. This climate phenomenon often weighs on rainfall during the latter half of the June-to-September season [6].
In a previous assessment, the IMD said, "India's weather office has forecast a below‑average monsoon in 2026, with an El Niño expected to develop and weigh on rainfall in the latter half of the June‑to‑September season" [6].
“The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala coast on time in early June.”
The conflict between forecasts of 'above-normal' and 'below-normal' rainfall, coupled with the anticipated El Niño event, suggests high volatility for the 2026 agricultural cycle. If the below-normal estimate of 92% LPA holds, India may face water shortages and reduced crop yields in the second half of the season, necessitating early contingency planning for irrigation and food imports.
