The India Meteorological Department downgraded its southwest monsoon forecast to below-normal rainfall for Central, South Peninsular, and Northwest India.
This shift in projection is critical because India relies heavily on monsoon rains for agriculture and water security. A below-normal season combined with extreme heat can threaten crop yields and increase the risk of water shortages across the subcontinent.
The IMD based these updates on extended-range climate models and recent atmospheric analysis. The department said it anticipates a reduced moisture influx, which will lead to lower rainfall totals and higher temperatures [1, 2]. This includes warnings of severe heatwaves specifically in Northwest India [3].
Regional forecasts show significant variation. The monsoon was expected to hit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 16, 2024 [3]. In Kerala, the southwest monsoon was projected to set in on May 26, 2024 [4]. However, the IMD also projected largely dry conditions over Kerala from May 28 to June 4, 2024 [1].
Following that dry spell, the department expects only marginal improvement in Kerala rainfall between June 4 and June 11, 2024 [1]. These patchy conditions contrast with the historical Long-Period Average of seasonal rainfall for India, which is 87 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020 [5].
The downgraded forecast comes as the region prepares for a hotter June. The combination of delayed or insufficient rains and rising temperatures creates a volatile environment for the agricultural sector, which remains the primary livelihood for millions of Indians.
“The India Meteorological Department downgraded its southwest monsoon forecast to below-normal rainfall”
A below-normal monsoon forecast suggests a potential decline in agricultural productivity and a heightened risk of drought. When coupled with predicted heatwaves in the Northwest, the atmospheric conditions could lead to increased crop failure and higher energy demands for cooling, placing economic pressure on rural and urban populations alike.
