The India Meteorological Department said that the 2026 monsoon will deliver approximately 90% of the Long Period Average rainfall [1].
This projection is critical because the Indian economy relies heavily on monsoon rains for agriculture and water security. A below-normal season can lead to reduced crop yields, impacting food prices, and rural incomes across the country.
The IMD has classified the upcoming June to September 2026 season as below-normal for most parts of India [1]. While the agency expects normal rainfall levels in Northeast India, other regions are likely to see a deficit [2].
Maharashtra is expected to be particularly affected. The IMD said rainfall in most parts of the state will remain below-normal throughout 2026 [3]. This deficiency is linked to anticipated climatic conditions, including temperatures that are forecast to be warmer-than-normal during the monsoon period [3].
These higher temperatures are expected to suppress rainfall in several parts of the country, creating a cycle of heat and drought. The IMD's revised forecast emphasizes the risk of water scarcity in regions already prone to seasonal stress.
Agricultural experts monitor these figures closely to advise farmers on crop selection. A 10% drop from the long period average can shift the viability of water-intensive crops, forcing a transition to more drought-resistant varieties to mitigate potential losses [1].
“The 2026 monsoon will deliver approximately 90% of the Long Period Average rainfall.”
A below-normal monsoon forecast suggests a potential strain on India's agricultural output and hydroelectric power generation. By predicting rainfall at 90% of the long period average, the IMD is signaling a need for proactive water management and a shift in planting strategies to avoid widespread crop failure, particularly in Maharashtra where heat and dryness are expected to coincide.
