The India Meteorological Department lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall outlook to 90 percent of the long-period average [1].
This revision is critical because India's agricultural sector relies heavily on seasonal rains for crop sowing. A deficit in rainfall can lead to reduced crop yields, which often triggers a spike in food prices and impacts national food security.
Dr. Ramesh Kumar, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, said the revised outlook reflects the emerging El Niño scenario [3]. The agency attributes the lower forecast to the expected development of El Niño conditions and associated below-normal sea-surface temperatures, which are likely to suppress rainfall [4].
The monsoon's arrival has already begun in specific regions. The IMD reported the onset over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands occurred around May 16 [2], while the monsoon reached Kerala on May 26 [5].
Industry and agricultural representatives have expressed differing views on the impact of the 90 percent forecast. Anita Sharma, a spokesperson for the Indian Farmers’ Union, said a forecast this low raises serious concerns for farmers and could push food prices higher [6].
However, some industry leaders remain optimistic about the economic outcome. Rajesh Aggarwal, Managing Director of Insecticides Ltd., said 90 to 92 percent rainfall below the long-period average is good, provided the distribution is well spread [7]. Aggarwal said that if monsoons are delayed, dry crop sowing will be impacted, but his company expects double-digit growth in FY27 [7].
El Niño conditions are expected to fully develop by June 2026 [8], further influencing the precipitation patterns across the subcontinent throughout the summer months.
“"We have revised the monsoon rainfall outlook for 2026 to 90% of the long-period average, reflecting the emerging El Niño scenario."”
The reduction in the rainfall forecast signals a potential tension between industrial growth and agricultural stability. While agribusinesses may find a slight deficit manageable if the rain is evenly distributed, the farming community views any dip below the long-period average as a risk to crop viability. The development of El Niño typically correlates with drought conditions in South Asia, meaning the government may need to implement contingency plans for irrigation and food imports to mitigate inflation.
