The India Meteorological Department warned that a developing super El Niño in the Pacific could cause a weak or below-normal 2026 southwest monsoon.
This forecast is critical because the southwest monsoon is the primary water source for India's agriculture. A significant deficit in rainfall threatens food security, increases the risk of widespread drought, and can trigger extreme heatwaves across the subcontinent.
The IMD has reduced the 2026 monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-term average [3]. Meteorologists said the current atmospheric conditions in the Pacific are suppressing the typical moisture flow required for a robust monsoon season.
These weather patterns create a volatile environment for the region. While several states are expected to struggle with drought and heatwaves [2, 5], other reports indicate that coastal southern states could still face potential floods [4]. This disparity highlights the unpredictable nature of the current climate cycle.
In response to the threat, the IMD advised farmers to conserve water and review their crop plans. The agency said that agricultural producers should prepare contingency strategies to mitigate the impact of reduced rainfall [1, 2].
Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to rainfall deficits in India. The agency is monitoring the Pacific closely as the super El Niño builds, which typically disrupts the pressure gradients that drive the monsoon winds toward the Indian landmass [1, 4].
“The IMD has reduced the 2026 monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-term average.”
The reduction in projected rainfall to 90% suggests a potential systemic shock to India's agrarian economy. Because the southwest monsoon dictates the success of the Kharif crop cycle, a below-normal season often leads to higher food inflation and increased government spending on drought relief. The contradiction between drought risks in the interior and flood risks in the south underscores the extreme weather volatility associated with super El Niño events.
