Exit poll projections from Today's Chanakya indicate the BJP is poised for a landslide victory in Assam and a narrow lead for the UDF in Kerala.

These projections serve as a critical bellwether for the 2026 state assembly elections, signaling the current strength of the National Democratic Alliance in the northeast and the competitive nature of the southern political landscape.

In Assam, the pollster projects the BJP will secure 102 seats [1], with a margin of error of plus or minus nine. This dominant performance is supported by a projected 50% vote share for the party [3]. In contrast, the Congress party is projected to win 23 seats [2], also within a plus or minus nine seat margin.

The race in Kerala appears significantly tighter. The United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to edge ahead with 69 seats [4], while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to secure 64 seats [5]. Both figures carry a margin of error of plus or minus nine.

The BJP is projected to maintain a smaller presence in Kerala, with an estimated seven seats [6].

Today's Chanakya said the data was collected to forecast voter preferences ahead of the official results. The findings suggest a stark contrast in regional momentum, where the BJP continues to consolidate power in Assam and the Kerala contest remains a close fight between the UDF and LDF.

“The BJP is projected to secure 102 seats in Assam.”

The projections highlight a diverging political trend in India's state elections. A landslide in Assam reinforces the BJP's stronghold in the northeast, while the narrow gap in Kerala underscores the persistence of a bipolar contest between the UDF and LDF, with the BJP struggling to make significant inroads in the south.