Exit polls from Today's Chanakya project a significant surge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal and Assam [1].
These projections indicate a potential shift in power across several Indian states, signaling a change in voter sentiment ahead of the official 2026 state assembly election results. The data suggests a divergence in political momentum between the northern and southern regions of the country.
In West Bengal, the BJP is projected to see a substantial gain. One estimate suggests the party could secure around 192 seats, with a margin of plus or minus 11 [1]. Another estimate places the potential win between 150 and 175 seats [3]. The party's projected vote share in the state is 48% [2].
The projections for Assam are similarly strong for the BJP. The agency said the party will dominate the state with a vote share of approximately 50% [1].
In Tamil Nadu, the political landscape appears different. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is predicted to retain power [1]. While the DMK maintains its hold, reports said that Vijay's TVK party is set to gain significantly in the state [1].
The polls, which were released around April 29, 2026 [3], also noted a close fight in Kerala. These projections are based on the methodology used by Today's Chanakya to gauge voter preferences across these key electoral battlegrounds [4].
Official results will determine if these projections translate into actual seats. The varying estimates for West Bengal, ranging from 150 to 203 seats, highlight the volatility of the current political climate in the region [1, 3].
“BJP could secure around 192 seats (±11) in West Bengal”
If these projections hold, the BJP would achieve a historic breakthrough in West Bengal, a state that has long been a stronghold for the Trinamool Congress. A simultaneous sweep of Assam and a surge in Bengal would consolidate the BJP's influence in Eastern India. Meanwhile, the DMK's predicted victory in Tamil Nadu suggests that the BJP's momentum has not yet penetrated the southern political bastion, despite the emergence of new players like TVK.
