India's agriculture sector faces a simultaneous threat from a below-normal monsoon, an emerging El Niño event, and ongoing conflict in West Asia.
This convergence of environmental and geopolitical pressures could destabilize food security and increase production costs for millions of farmers. Because the Indian agricultural cycle relies heavily on predictable rainfall and affordable imports, these three factors create a high-risk scenario for the 2026 growing season.
Weather forecasts indicate the monsoon season of 2026 is projected to be weaker than normal [3]. Specifically, the monsoon is forecast to reach about 92% of the Long-Period Average [1]. This deficit is compounded by an El Niño event expected to develop in 2026 [2], a climate pattern that typically suppresses rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.
While climate patterns threaten water availability, geopolitical instability in West Asia is impacting the supply chain. Conflict in the region has created volatility around the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical transit point for fertilizer imports [4, 5].
Rising crude oil prices driven by the West Asia war are further complicating the outlook. Higher energy costs often lead to the diversion of resources toward bio-fuels, which can tighten the global supply of fertilizers and raise the cost of essential agricultural inputs [4, 5].
Farmers are now confronting a scenario where they must deal with lower water availability while facing higher prices for the nutrients needed to sustain their crops. The combination of reduced rainfall and increased input costs threatens to lower overall yields across the country [5].
“India's agriculture sector faces a simultaneous threat from a below-normal monsoon, an emerging El Niño event, and ongoing conflict in West Asia.”
The intersection of climate volatility and geopolitical strife creates a systemic risk for India's economy. A shortfall in monsoon rains combined with expensive or unavailable fertilizers could lead to reduced domestic crop yields, potentially forcing the government to increase food imports and risking higher food inflation for consumers.
