The India Meteorological Department forecast Friday that southwest monsoon rainfall will reach only 90% [1] of the long-period average.

This projection suggests a deficient season for a nation heavily reliant on seasonal rains for its agricultural output and water security. A below-normal monsoon often leads to reduced crop yields and puts pressure on irrigation reserves.

In its second forecast for the season, the India Meteorological Department said, "The southwest monsoon seasonal (June‑September) rainfall over India is expected to be below normal." The agency released the data on May 29, 2026 [3].

The forecast includes a model error of four percent [2]. Meteorologists said the predicted deficiency is due to El Niño conditions and accompanying heatwaves that have affected core agricultural zones [5]. These atmospheric patterns typically suppress rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.

While the overall seasonal outlook is deficient, the monsoon is still expected to begin soon. The agency said the monsoon onset over Kerala is expected in the first week of June 2026 [4].

Agricultural zones across the country remain vulnerable as they transition from heatwave conditions to the rainy season. The timing and volume of these rains are critical for the sowing of Kharif crops, which form the backbone of the rural economy.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal (June‑September) rainfall over India is expected to be below normal”

A rainfall deficit of 10% below the long-period average can trigger significant economic volatility in India. Because the agricultural sector employs a vast portion of the population, below-normal precipitation often leads to higher food inflation and reduced rural income, potentially forcing the government to implement drought relief measures or increase food imports to stabilize the market.