A developing El Niño and geopolitical conflicts may weaken India's monsoon and increase food and fertilizer prices, industry experts said.
These factors create a volatile environment for India's agricultural sector, which remains heavily dependent on seasonal rains for crop yields. Any significant disruption to the monsoon could trigger food inflation and threaten national food security.
Sumit Gupta, CEO of WASEDA Global Commodities, said these risks during an interview with CNBC TV18 Prime. Gupta said that the combination of a potentially weak monsoon and the ongoing conflict in West Asia could create a compounding effect on agricultural costs. The West Asia conflict specifically impacts the supply and pricing of fertilizers, which are critical for maintaining crop productivity during adverse weather conditions.
Climate data indicates a complex outlook for the region. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a monsoon forecast with 92% confidence [1]. However, the severity of the climate impact remains a point of contention among analysts. Some reports suggest a super El Niño is increasingly likely later this year [2], while other sources argue it is too early to forecast such an event with certainty.
If a super El Niño occurs, it could significantly reduce rainfall across the subcontinent. This scenario would likely lead to lower harvests for key staples, pushing food prices higher for consumers. The intersection of climate instability and geopolitical tension means that India may face simultaneous pressure from both production shortages and increased input costs.
Agricultural stakeholders are monitoring these trends to determine if intervention or alternative sourcing for fertilizers is necessary. The volatility in the Pacific Ocean's temperatures continues to be the primary driver for the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming growing season.
“A developing El Niño and geopolitical conflicts may weaken India's monsoon and increase food and fertilizer prices.”
India's reliance on the monsoon makes its economy hypersensitive to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. When climate-driven crop failures coincide with geopolitical disruptions to the fertilizer supply chain, the government faces a double-sided risk of rising food inflation and decreased farmer income, potentially requiring strategic imports to stabilize the domestic market.
