Petrol and diesel prices in India are rising as the U.S. government lets its sanctions waiver on Russian crude oil expire [1].
This shift threatens to increase the cost of living for millions of Indian consumers and complicates the national energy strategy. The loss of discounted Russian crude occurs while global energy markets face significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
State-run fuel retailers reported a price hike of three rupees per litre on May 15 [2], representing an increase of more than three percent [2]. This follows a period of relative stability in late April, when prices were reported as holding steady on April 29 [3].
However, further increases may be imminent. Some government sources said that prices could rise by an additional ₹4–₹5 per litre [4]. These fluctuations are exacerbated by global crude oil prices, which have climbed above $105 per barrel [5].
India has relied heavily on the U.S. sanctions waiver to maintain a steady flow of affordable Russian oil. Without this legal carve-out, the Indian government and its retailers face higher procurement costs—costs that are now being passed on to motorists in major cities including Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata [3].
The intersection of U.S. foreign policy and Middle East instability has created a precarious environment for India's fuel market. As the waiver ends, the ability of the state to buffer consumers from global price shocks diminishes.
“Petrol and diesel prices in India are rising as the U.S. government lets its sanctions waiver on Russian crude oil expire.”
The expiration of the U.S. sanctions waiver forces India to either pay higher market rates for Russian oil or find alternative, potentially more expensive, suppliers. Combined with supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz and global prices exceeding $105 per barrel, this creates a compounding inflationary pressure on the Indian economy that the government can no longer easily offset through waivers.
